The Civil Beat Poll

Civil Beat Poll: Hanabusa Has Edge in 1st Congressional District

·By John Temple

First Congressional race is tight, state Senate president on track to take seat back for Democrats. Inouye, Hirono cruising to easy victories.


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<p><strong>Methodology:</strong> Aloha Vote, a Hawaii subsidiary of <a href="">Merriman River Group</a> (MRG), surveyed 1,181 likely voters on Oct. 23 using interactive voice response technology (touch-tone polling). The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points for the 1st Congressional District race, +/- 4.1 percentage points for the 2nd Congressional District race and +/- 2.9 percentage points for the U.S. Senate race. The margin of error indicates that in 95 percent of samples of this size, the results will be within the margin of error of the actual percentage in the full population of likely voters. Merriman River Group, founded in 1998, is a full-service consulting organization specializing in election management, opinion research and communication. Since 2008, MRG has collected national survey data for the National Leadership Index conducted by the Center for Public Leadership at the Harvard Kennedy School.</p>