The Civil Beat Poll

Civil Beat Poll – Case, Hirono Tied In Hawaii U.S. Senate Race

·By Michael Levine

Ed Morita for Mazie Hirono

Discussion

If the Democratic Senate primary were held today, would you vote for Congresswoman Mazie Hirono, or former Congressman Ed Case?
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<p><strong>Check out <a class="topic_link" href="https://www.civilbeat.com/topics/the-civil-beat-poll/" slug="the-civil-beat-poll">The Civil Beat Poll</a> for previous surveys of candidates and issues. And you can follow the elections on many fronts this year with our <a class="topic_link" href="https://www.civilbeat.com/topics/hawaii-elections-guide-2012/" slug="hawaii-elections-guide-2012">Hawaii Elections Guide 2012</a>.</strong></p>
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<p><a name="1">1.</a> <strong>ABOUT THE POLL:</strong> <a class="topic_link" href="https://www.civilbeat.com/topics/civil-beat/" slug="civil-beat">Civil Beat</a> surveyed a random sample of 1,105 likely participants in the upcoming August election (i.e., registered voters whose voting histories indicate that they are likely to vote in one of the August state-wide Primaries and/or the Oahu Mayor’s race). Calls were made on the evenings of June 5-7, 2012, using interactive voice response technology (touch-tone polling).</p>
<p>All results were weighted for age, gender, County, and Congressional District (within Oahu County). Results for the four electoral contests polled were further weighted for likelihood of voting in each particular contest as determined by past voting history and self-report.</p>
<p>The sampling margin of error for the full sample is +/- 2.9 percentage points. The margin of error indicates that in 95 percent of samples of this size, the results will be within +/- 2.9 percent of the actual percentage in the full population of registered voters. Other sources of error, such as imperfect response rates, are also common in public opinion research and may affect the results. The margin of error for any crosstabulated result is larger than the margin of error of the corresponding topline result.</p>
<p>The sampling margin of error is larger for each of the four electoral contests. The appropriate margin of error is noted within each individual election report. </p>
<p>The poll was conducted by Civil Beat working with <a href="http://www.merrimanriver.com/home.html">Merriman River Group</a>, a full-service consulting organization specializing in opinion research, election management, and communications. <a href="#1a">↩</a></p>
<p><strong>COMPLETE RESULTS</strong></p>
<div style="width:572px" id="__ss_13286310"> <strong style="display:block;margin:12px 0 4px"><a href="http://www.slideshare.net/civilbeat/the-civil-beat-poll-june-2012-democratic-senate-primary" title="The Civil Beat Poll — June 2012 Democratic Senate Primary" target="_blank">The Civil Beat Poll — June 2012 Democratic Senate Primary</a></strong> <iframe src="http://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/embed_code/13286310" width="572" height="612" frameborder="0" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" scrolling="no" style="border:1px solid #CCC;border-width:1px 1px 0" allowfullscreen></iframe> <div style="padding:5px 0 12px"> View more <a href="http://www.slideshare.net/" target="_blank">documents</a> from <a href="http://www.slideshare.net/civilbeat" target="_blank">Civil Beat</a> </div> </div>

<div style="width:572px" id="__ss_13372313"> <strong style="display:block;margin:12px 0 4px"><a href="http://www.slideshare.net/civilbeat/the-civil-beat-poll-june-2012-hawaii-senate-general-election-matchups" title="The Civil Beat Poll June 2012 — Hawaii Senate General Election Matchups" target="_blank">The Civil Beat Poll June 2012 — Hawaii Senate General Election Matchups</a></strong> <iframe src="http://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/embed_code/13372313" width="572" height="612" frameborder="0" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" scrolling="no" style="border:1px solid #CCC;border-width:1px 1px 0" allowfullscreen></iframe> <div style="padding:5px 0 12px"> View more <a href="http://www.slideshare.net/" target="_blank">documents</a> from <a href="http://www.slideshare.net/civilbeat" target="_blank">Civil Beat</a> </div> </div>

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<p><a name="2">2.</a> In August 2011, Case released a poll by Merriman River Group that showed him leading Hirono 53 percent to 37 percent. Merriman did that one poll for Case and no longer works for him. In December 2011, Hirono's campaign said it had an internal poll that showed her leading Case by an 18-point margin. <a href="#2a">↩</a></p>