The Civil Beat Poll

Civil Beat Poll – Stunning Turnaround In Hawaii’s CD2 Race

·By Michael Levine

Courtesy Gabbard for Congress

About the Author

Civil Beat Staff

Michael Levine

Discussion

If the primary for Congress were held today, would you vote for Attorney Bob Marx, Honolulu City Council Member Tulsi Gabbard, former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, or former Chief Advocate for the Office of Hawaiian affairs Esther Kiaaina?
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<p><strong>Follow the elections on many fronts this year with our <a class="topic_link" href="https://www.civilbeat.com/topics/hawaii-elections-guide-2012/" slug="hawaii-elections-guide-2012">Hawaii Elections Guide 2012</a>. And check out our new Facebook voting game, <a href="https://apps.facebook.com/ohs-prod/">Our Hawaiian Spring</a>, developed in conjunction with the University of Hawaii Professional Assembly to encourage voter turnout.</strong></p>
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<p><a name="1">1.</a> <strong>ABOUT THE FIRST POLL:</strong> <a class="topic_link" href="https://www.civilbeat.com/topics/civil-beat/" slug="civil-beat">Civil Beat</a> surveyed a random sample of 1,105 likely participants in the upcoming August election (i.e., registered voters whose voting histories indicate that they are likely to vote in one of the August state-wide Primaries and/or the Oahu Mayor’s race). Calls were made on the evenings of June 5-7, 2012, using interactive voice response technology (touch-tone polling).</p>
<p>All results were weighted for age, gender, county, and Congressional District (within Oahu County). Results for the four electoral contests polled — Honolulu mayor, U.S. Senate Democrats, U.S. Senate Republicans and 2nd Congressional District Democrats — were further weighted for likelihood of voting in each particular contest as determined by past voting history and self-report.</p>
<p>The sampling margin of error for the full sample is +/- 2.9 percentage points. The margin of error indicates that in 95 percent of samples of this size, the results will be within +/- 2.9 percent of the actual percentage in the full population of registered voters. Other sources of error, such as imperfect response rates, are also common in public opinion research and may affect the results. The margin of error for any crosstabulated result is larger than the margin of error of the corresponding topline result.</p>
<p>The sampling margin of error is larger for each of the four electoral contests. The appropriate margin of error is noted within each individual election report. For the 2nd Congressional District Democratic Primary, the sample size of 340 yielded a margin of error of 5.3 percent.</p>
<p>The poll was conducted by Civil Beat working with <a href="http://www.merrimanriver.com/home.html">Merriman River Group</a>, a full-service consulting organization specializing in opinion research, election management, and communications. <a href="#1a">↩</a></p>
<p><a name="2">2.</a> <strong>ABOUT THE SECOND POLL:</strong> <a class="topic_link" href="https://www.civilbeat.com/topics/civil-beat/" slug="civil-beat">Civil Beat</a> surveyed a random sample of 685 likely participants in the Democratic Primary for Hawaii's Second Congressional District seat to be held this August. Calls were made on the evenings of June 13-14, 2012, using interactive voice response technology (touch-tone polling).</p>
<p>All results were weighted for age, gender, county, and likelihood of voting as determined by past voting history and self-report.</p>
<p>The sampling margin of error is +/- 3.7 percent. The margin of error indicates that in 95 percent of samples of this size, the results will be within +/- 3.7 percent of the actual percentage in the full population of likely voters. Other sources of error, such as imperfect response rates, are also common in public opinion research and may affect the results. The margin of error for any crosstabulated result is larger than the margin of error of the corresponding topline result.</p>
<p>The poll was conducted by Civil Beat working with <a href="http://www.merrimanriver.com/home.html">Merriman River Group</a>, a full-service consulting organization specializing in opinion research, election management, and communications. <a href="#2a">↩</a></p>
<p><strong>COMPLETE RESULTS</strong></p>
<div style="width:572px" id="__ss_13362334"> <strong style="display:block;margin:12px 0 4px"><a href="http://www.slideshare.net/civilbeat/the-civil-beat-poll-june-2012-2nd-congressional-democrats" title="The Civil Beat Poll June 2012 — 2nd Congressional Democrats PART 1" target="_blank">The Civil Beat Poll June 2012 — 2nd Congressional Democrats PART 1</a></strong> <iframe src="http://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/embed_code/13362334" width="572" height="612" frameborder="0" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" scrolling="no" style="border:1px solid #CCC;border-width:1px 1px 0" allowfullscreen></iframe> <div style="padding:5px 0 12px"> View more <a href="http://www.slideshare.net/" target="_blank">documents</a> from <a href="http://www.slideshare.net/civilbeat" target="_blank">Civil Beat</a> </div> </div>

<div style="width:572px" id="__ss_13362333"> <strong style="display:block;margin:12px 0 4px"><a href="http://www.slideshare.net/civilbeat/the-civil-beat-poll-june-2012-2nd-congressional-democrats-part-2" title="The Civil Beat Poll June 2012 — 2nd Congressional Democrats PART 2" target="_blank">The Civil Beat Poll June 2012 — 2nd Congressional Democrats PART 2</a></strong> <iframe src="http://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/embed_code/13362333" width="572" height="612" frameborder="0" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" scrolling="no" style="border:1px solid #CCC;border-width:1px 1px 0" allowfullscreen></iframe> <div style="padding:5px 0 12px"> View more <a href="http://www.slideshare.net/" target="_blank">documents</a> from <a href="http://www.slideshare.net/civilbeat" target="_blank">Civil Beat</a> </div> </div>