The Civil Beat Poll

Civil Beat Poll – Cayetano’s Grip On Honolulu Mayor’s Race Is Slipping

·By Michael Levine

Anti-rail candidate still leads but shrinking support hints at possible runoff.


If the Honolulu Mayor's election were held today, which candidate would you vote for?
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<p><strong>Check out <a class="topic_link" href="" slug="the-civil-beat-poll">The Civil Beat Poll</a> for previous surveys of candidates and issues. And you can follow the elections on many fronts this year with our <a class="topic_link" href="" slug="hawaii-elections-guide-2012">Hawaii Elections Guide 2012</a>.</strong></p>
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<p><a name="1">1.</a> <strong>ABOUT THE POLL:</strong> <a class="topic_link" href="" slug="civil-beat">Civil Beat</a> surveyed a random sample of 1,105 likely participants in the upcoming August election (i.e., registered voters whose voting histories indicate that they are likely to vote in one of the August state-wide Primaries and/or the Oahu Mayor’s race). Calls were made on the evenings of June 5-7, 2012, using interactive voice response technology (touch-tone polling).</p>
<p>All results were weighted for age, gender, County, and Congressional District (within Oahu County). Results for the four electoral contests polled were further weighted for likelihood of voting in each particular contest as determined by past voting history and self-report.</p>
<p>The sampling margin of error for the full sample is +/- 2.9 percentage points. The margin of error indicates that in 95 percent of samples of this size, the results will be within +/- 2.9 percent of the actual percentage in the full population of registered voters. Other sources of error, such as imperfect response rates, are also common in public opinion research and may affect the results. The margin of error for any crosstabulated result is larger than the margin of error of the corresponding topline result.</p>
<p>The sampling margin of error is larger for each of the four electoral contests. The appropriate margin of error is noted within each individual election report. </p>
<p>The poll was conducted by Civil Beat working with <a href="">Merriman River Group</a>, a full-service consulting organization specializing in opinion research, election management, and communications. <a href="#1a">↩</a></p>
<p><strong>COMPLETE RESULTS</strong></p>
<div style="width:572px" id="__ss_13301327"> <strong style="display:block;margin:12px 0 4px"><a href="" title="The Civil Beat Poll — June 2012 Honolulu Mayor Primary" target="_blank">The Civil Beat Poll — June 2012 Honolulu Mayor Primary</a></strong> <object id="__sse13301327" width="572" height="612"> <param name="movie" value="" /> <param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"/> <param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"/> <param name="wmode" value="transparent"/> <embed name="__sse13301327" src="" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" wmode="transparent" width="572" height="612"></embed> </object> <div style="padding:5px 0 12px"> View more <a href="" target="_blank">documents</a> from <a href="" target="_blank">Civil Beat</a> </div> </div>