The Civil Beat Poll

Civil Beat Poll – Case-Hirono Too Close To Call

·By Michael Levine

Ed Case and Mazie Hirono traded jabs during a Democratic primary debate in 2012. Hirono went on to become Hawaii’s junior U.S. senator.

About the Author

Civil Beat Staff

Michael Levine

Discussion

Who are you supporting in the Democratic primary for Senate?
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<p><strong>Follow the elections on many fronts this year with our <a class="topic_link" href="https://www.civilbeat.com/topics/hawaii-elections-guide-2012/" slug="hawaii-elections-guide-2012">Hawaii Elections Guide 2012</a>. And check out our new Facebook voting game, <a href="https://apps.facebook.com/ohs-prod/">Our Hawaiian Spring</a>, developed in conjunction with the University of Hawaii Professional Assembly to encourage voter turnout.</strong></p>
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<p><a name="1">1.</a> <strong>ABOUT THE POLL:</strong> Civil Beat surveyed a random sample of 1,484 likely participants in the upcoming August election (i.e., registered voters whose voting histories indicate that they are likely to vote in one of the August statewide primaries and/or the Oahu mayor’s race). Calls were made on the evenings of July 31 – August 2, 2012, using interactive voice response technology (touch-tone polling).</p>
<p>All results were balanced for age, gender, race/ethnicity, county, and congressional district (within Honolulu County).</p>
<p>The sampling margin of error for the full sample is +/- 2.5 percentage points. The margin of error indicates that in 95 percent of samples of this size, the results will be within +/- 2.5 percent of the actual percentage in the full population of likely voters. Other sources of error, such as imperfect response rates, are also common in public opinion research and may affect the results. The margin of error for any crosstabulated result is larger than the margin of error of the corresponding topline result.</p>
<p>The sampling margin of error is larger for each electoral contest. The appropriate margin of error is noted within the individual election reports. For the U.S. Senate Democratic primary, the sample size of 1,227 yielded a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.</p>
<p>The poll was conducted by Civil Beat working with <a href="http://www.merrimanriver.com/other">Merriman River Group</a>, a full-service consulting organization specializing in opinion research, election management, and communications. <a href="#1a">↩</a></p>
<p><a name="2">2.</a> The sample size of the Republican primary between Lingle and Carroll was 223, yielding a margin of error of +/- 6.6 percent. <a href="#2a">↩</a></p>
<p><a name="3">3.</a> In August 2011, Merriman River Group worked on an internal poll for Case's campaign. Merriman did that one poll for Case and no longer works for him. <a href="#3a">↩</a></p>
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<h2 id="primary-survey-questions">Primary Survey Questions</h2>
<iframe src="http://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/embed_code/13879477" width="574" height="613" frameborder="0" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" scrolling="no" style="border:1px solid #CCC;border-width:1px 1px 0;margin-bottom:5px" allowfullscreen> </iframe>

<p><div style="margin-bottom:5px"> <strong> <a href="http://www.slideshare.net/civilbeat/civil-beat-august-2012-primary-survey-questions" title="Civil Beat August 2012 primary survey questions" target="_blank">Civil Beat August 2012 primary survey questions</a> </strong> from <strong><a href="http://www.slideshare.net/civilbeat" target="_blank">Civil Beat</a></strong> </div></p>
<h2 id="democratic-senate-primary-results">Democratic Senate Primary Results</h2>
<iframe src="http://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/embed_code/13909356" width="574" height="613" frameborder="0" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" scrolling="no" style="border:1px solid #CCC;border-width:1px 1px 0;margin-bottom:5px" allowfullscreen> </iframe>

<p><div style="margin-bottom:5px"> <strong> <a href="http://www.slideshare.net/civilbeat/civil-beat-poll-august-2012-us-senate-primary-results" title="Civil Beat Poll August 2012 U.S. Senate Primary Results" target="_blank">Civil Beat Poll August 2012 U.S. Senate Primary Results</a> </strong> from <strong><a href="http://www.slideshare.net/civilbeat" target="_blank">Civil Beat</a></strong> </div></p>