The Civil Beat Poll

Civil Beat Poll – Cayetano On Track To Win In Primary and Avoid Runoff

·By Michael Levine

Cayetano for Mayor

UPDATED Caldwell ahead of Carlisle for second in Honolulu mayor’s race.


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1. ABOUT THE POLL: Civil Beat surveyed a random sample of 1,484 likely participants in the upcoming August election (i.e., registered voters whose voting histories indicate that they are likely to vote in one of the August statewide primaries and/or the Oahu mayor’s race). Calls were made on the evenings of July 31 – August 2, 2012, using interactive voice response technology (touch-tone polling).

All results were balanced for age, gender, race/ethnicity, county, and congressional district (within Honolulu County).

The sampling margin of error for the full sample is +/- 2.5 percentage points. The margin of error indicates that in 95 percent of samples of this size, the results will be within +/- 2.5 percent of the actual percentage in the full population of likely voters. Other sources of error, such as imperfect response rates, are also common in public opinion research and may affect the results. The margin of error for any crosstabulated result is larger than the margin of error of the corresponding topline result.

The sampling margin of error is larger for each electoral contest. The appropriate margin of error is noted within the individual election reports. For the Honolulu mayoral race, the sample size of 1,098 yielded a margin of error of 3.0 percent.

The poll was conducted by Civil Beat working with Merriman River Group, a full-service consulting organization specializing in opinion research, election management, and communications.

2. Correction: An earlier version of this article said Carlisle was an actual member of the Republican Party. The August 2010 Fact Check linked to above, titled "Carlisle: I'm No Elephant," makes clear Carlisle left the GOP years ago and considers himself nonpartisan.

Primary Survey Questions

Honolulu Mayor Primary Results