The Civil Beat Poll

Civil Beat Poll – Hanabusa Expands Lead Over Djou In Race for Congress

·By Michael Levine

Candidates' respective websites

Democrats likely to continue representing Hawaii in House.


Who are you voting for in the U.S. Congress contest where you live?

Follow the elections on many fronts this year with our Hawaii Elections Guide 2012. And check out our new Facebook voting game, Our Hawaiian Spring, developed in conjunction with the University of Hawaii Professional Assembly to encourage voter turnout.

1. ABOUT THE POLL: Civil Beat surveyed a random sample of 657 likely participants in the upcoming November general election in the 1st Congressional District and 562 likely participants in the upcoming November general election in the 2st Congressional District (i.e., registered voters whose voting histories indicate that they are likely to vote). Calls were made on the evenings of Oct. 24 to Oct. 26, using interactive voice response technology (touch-tone polling).

All results were balanced for age, gender and race/ethnicity.

The sampling margin of error for the 1st Congressional contest is +/- 3.8 percentage points; for the 2nd Congressional race it is +/- 4.1 percent. The margin of error indicates that in 95 percent of samples of this size, the results will be within +/- 3.8 percent or 4.1 percent, respectively, of the actual percentage in the full population of likely voters. Other sources of error, such as imperfect response rates, are also common in public opinion research and may affect the results. The margin of error for any crosstabulated result is larger than the margin of error of the corresponding topline result.

The poll was conducted by Civil Beat working with Merriman River Group, a full-service consulting organization specializing in opinion research, election management, and communications.