The Civil Beat Poll

Civil Beat Poll – Obama Lead Narrows, But Hawaii Still Very Safe

·By Michael Levine

Bruce Asato/Pool photo

Democratic president ahead of Romney by 27 percent in final election survey.


In the presidential election, would you vote for Barack Obama, or Mitt Romney?

Follow the elections on many fronts this year with our Hawaii Elections Guide 2012. And check out our new Facebook voting game, Our Hawaiian Spring, developed in conjunction with the University of Hawaii Professional Assembly to encourage voter turnout.

1. ABOUT THE POLL: Civil Beat surveyed a random sample of 1,218 likely participants in the upcoming November general election (i.e., registered voters whose voting histories indicate that they are likely to vote). Calls were made on the evenings of Oct. 24 to Oct. 26, using interactive voice response technology (touch-tone polling).

All results were balanced for age, gender, race/ethnicity, and congressional district (within Honolulu County).

The sampling margin of error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points. The margin of error indicates that in 95 percent of samples of this size, the results will be within +/- 2.8 percent of the actual percentage in the full population of likely voters. Other sources of error, such as imperfect response rates, are also common in public opinion research and may affect the results. The margin of error for any crosstabulated result is larger than the margin of error of the corresponding topline result.

The poll was conducted by Civil Beat working with Merriman River Group, a full-service consulting organization specializing in opinion research, election management, and communications.