Analysis: Civil Beat Poll Points To Dems' November Dilemma

Chad Blair/Civil Beat

There sits Charles Djou, with nearly 40 percent of the vote in the special election.

So how does he win again in the general election? Can he do it, given the Democrats' sizable edge in registration in the 1st Congressional District and the fact that it's unlikely that two strong Democratic candidates will split their party's vote again?

The obvious answer is that he can't, because if you total the votes for the two Democratic contenders — former Congressman Ed Case and State Senate President Colleen Hanabusa — the number would overwhelm Djou's support. Together, they got 100,193 votes, to Djou's 67,610. After all, he's only the third Republican elected to Congress since statehood, and the first in 20 years.

However a deeper analysis of the results of a Civil Beat poll on the race conducted in early May by the Merriman River Group raises some difficult questions for Democrats as they look ahead to November. The automated-telephone poll accurately predicted the outcome of the special election (the poll had Djou with 39.5 percent of the vote; he got 39.4) and showed that Hanabusa was tied with Case and would likely beat him, as she did.

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