Hedging Bets at the 2012 Hawaii Ledge

Katherine Poythress/Civil Beat

"It's the economy, stupid" — the mantra Bill Clinton used in his 1992 election to the presidency — is the theme most heard around the halls of the state Capitol this month.

With session opening Wednesday, the top focus is to stabilize and grow the economy, and to create jobs.

The fiscal situation is far better than it was just a year ago, so there may be opportunities to spend a little more rather than trim a whole lot. Unlike last session, there are not expected to be the major kinds of policy clashes between the state House and state Senate and with the Abercrombie administration that imperiled the state budget.

Look for spending on capital improvement projects to stimulate growth in the short-term. CIP is a win-win-win-win-win: there's a huge backlog of needed repairs and maintenance, construction companies get money, more people get work, lawmakers campaign on having fixed a bridge, created a bypass, spruced up a school or expanded a harbor and Gov. Neil Abercrombie can issue rosy press releases and smile during groundbreaking ceremonies.

This month's downward projection from the Council on Revenues throws some cold water on those goals, as does the state's massive and growing unfunded liabilities for state retirees, as does the still unsettled business of labor contracts. Lawmakers may again look for more sources of revenue, such as a tax on sugary drinks (something that failed last session), and by hiking yet more fees for services.

Keep in mind that the House and Senate, though both dominated by Democrats, often have starkly different views on best approaches — something illustrated by the fight over taxing pensions in 2011. One chamber can kill another's cherished plan, while a single lawmaker can kill a bill supported by a majority.

Still, in a crucial election year, Democrats will do their best to be seen singing from the same hymnal. Here's a rough guide of what to expect this session.

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