Civil Beat Poll - Cayetano's Grip On Honolulu Mayor's Race Is Slipping

Civil Beat composite

With election day approaching, Ben Cayetano's massive early lead in the 2012 Honolulu mayoral race is shrinking.

Two months before the Aug. 11 vote that could determine the city's next chief, the former Hawaii governor remains the front-runner in a new Civil Beat Poll of likely primary voters with 44 percent support versus 23 percent for former Acting Mayor Kirk Caldwell and 21 percent for incumbent Mayor Peter Carlisle.

The survey of 799 voters islandwide is a snapshot of voter opinion at the time the poll was taken, between June 5 and June 7.1 The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percent.

Cayetano's number is down from 53 percent when Civil Beat surveyed voters in late February. Caldwell picked up most of the difference to leapfrog over Carlisle, though the gap between those two is within the margin of error and thus a statistical tie. Both polls asked voters who they'd back if the election were held "today."

The primary election winner would need more than 50 percent to avoid a runoff election against the second-place finisher. If the 12 percent of voters who are undecided were to split in the same proportions as the voters who say they've made a choice, Cayetano would be right at the 50 percent threshold.

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