Civil Beat Poll - Cayetano On Track To Win In Primary and Avoid Runoff

Cayetano for Mayor

Updated 7:45 a.m. Aug. 8

Former Hawaii Gov. Ben Cayetano has a real chance to exceed 50 percent in Saturday's primary and become Honolulu's 14th mayor. It would be only the second time in the last 16 years that the mayor would be elected without the need for a runoff.

With many early ballots already cast and some voters still undecided, Cayetano's support last week sat at 51 percent, according to The Civil Beat Poll. The survey of 1,098 likely primary voters was conducted between July 31 and Aug. 2.1 The poll's margin of error is +/- 3.0 percent. Cayetano is so close to 50 percent we might not know if he's hit his mark until late Saturday night.

That Cayetano, who was admitted to the hospital Sunday due to a bleeding ulcer, is the heavy favorite to finish first in the three-man mayoral race is nothing new. Whether he'll avoid a runoff is still unanswered. That leaves one other key question to address: If Cayetano fails to hit 50 percent, who will he face in November?

The Civil Beat Poll shows former acting mayor Kirk Caldwell has opened a narrow lead over incumbent Mayor Peter Carlisle, 24 percent to 19 percent. The edge is slightly narrower among the 29 percent of likely voters who said they'd already voted than among the 70 percent who said they definitely plan to vote.

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