Civil Beat Poll - Case-Hirono Too Close To Call08/08/2012
Despite open contempt from party elders and a major fundraising disadvantage, Ed Case has the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate within reach.
A snapshot taken 10 days before the election shows Case with the narrowest of leads and the momentum, but other data from The Civil Beat Poll indicates rival Mazie Hirono might have the inside track. Case's 47-46 edge is within the margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent, making the race a statistical dead heat. Case has more support from those who decided recently, but Hirono banked more votes in the first days of early voting. Seven percent remain undecided.
Civil Beat surveyed 1,227 likely Democratic Primary voters statewide between July 31 and Aug. 2.1 Hirono led among those who said they'd already voted, the poll found, while Case had the advantage among those who said they definitely planned to vote. The winner will advance to the November general election to face likely Republican nominee Linda Lingle, who led John Carroll 84-11.2
The poll's neck-and-neck results for the leading Democrats are consistent with two previous Civil Beat surveys taken in June and January. Those polls found a 46-46 tie and 41-39 Case lead, respectively. But all three of the Civil Beat results3 are far different from other independent polling of the race.