Civil Beat Poll - Dems Lead Congress Races10/05/2012
WASHINGTON — Democrats Colleen Hanabusa and Tulsi Gabbard hold leads over their Republican opponents and appear likely to keep Hawaii's congressional delegation blue for at least the next two years, according to The Civil Beat Poll.
Hanabusa's edge over Charles Djou at this point in the 1st Congressional District race is five points, 49 percent to 44 percent, with 7 percent undecided. Gabbard, meanwhile, is solidly in the driver's seat in the 2nd Congressional District with a 70-18 percent advantage over Kawika Crowley, with 12 percent undecided. The results are the first public opinion survey numbers released for both matchups since the nominees emerged from the Aug. 11 primary election.
The Hanabusa-Djou survey polled 856 likely voters for a margin of error of 3.3 percent, and the Gabbard-Crowley survey had 751 respondents for a margin of error of 3.8 percent. Both surveys were conducted between Sept. 26 and Sept. 28, concurrent with Civil Beat's polls on the presidential race, the U.S. Senate race and the Honolulu mayor's race.1
Though Hanabusa's lead is in the single digits, barely larger than the margin of error and smaller than the number of undecideds in the contest, other variables in the contest point to a clear victory.