Civil Beat Poll - Cayetano Peaks, Caldwell Surges
UPDATED 10/30/11 4:30 a.m.
WASHINGTON — Kirk Caldwell has continued his steady surge in the Honolulu mayor's race, closing to within striking distance of Ben Cayetano just two weeks before Election Day, according to The Civil Beat Poll.
Cayetano led Caldwell, 50 percent to 45 percent, in a survey of 886 likely general election voters on Oahu.1 The poll, conducted on the nights of Oct. 24 to Oct. 26, after early voting had already begun, had a margin of error of 3.3 percent. Five percent were undecided.
Among the 30 percent who said they'd already voted, Cayetano, a 72-year-old retired two-term governor, was leading 54 percent to 45 percent. Early walk-in voting began Oct. 23, and absentee mail ballots were delivered to voters around the same time.
But the gap was much narrower among the 70 percent of respondents who said they hadn't yet voted but definitely will. Caldwell was down just 48 percent to 46 percent. The race is also slightly tighter among those who say they're locked in for their candidate, with Cayetano having more of the softer support among those who are leaning one way or another.