Civil Beat Poll - Obama Lead Narrows, But Hawaii Still Very Safe

Bruce Asato/Pool photo

WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama is going to carry Hawaii's four electoral votes Tuesday.

But beyond that bit of very unsurprising news is the suggestion that Obama's victory in the islands in 2012 could well be narrower than it was in 2008, and that it's narrower now than it was a month ago.

A survey of 1,218 likely general election voters across the state shows the Hawaii-born Democratic incumbent with a 61 percent to 34 percent lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney. The survey, which was conducted between Oct. 24 and Oct. 26, had a margin of error of 2.8 percent.1

That 27-point advantage is down slightly from his 32-point lead (62 percent to 30 percent) Obama held in late September, and down significantly from the 45-point win (72 percent to 27 percent) four years ago that made Hawaii the state with his largest margin of victory.

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