Latest Articles

  • Civil Beat Poll: Ige Up by 6 Over Aiona

    · By Chad Blair

    Democrat David Ige appears headed to victory in the race for Hawaii governor.

    With just over one week until the Nov. 4 election, the state senator leads Republican Duke Aiona, a former lieutenant governor, 40 percent to 34 percent, according to a new Civil Beat Poll.

    The latest numbers suggest that the contest continues to be a two-person race. Early voting has already begun.

    David Ige during an editorial board meeting at the Civil Beat offices on Oct. 1.

    PF Bentley/Civil Beat

    Clear Trend Line

    Only 11 percent of voters favor former

  • Civil Beat Poll: Public-Private Preschool Amendment Divides Voters

    · By Chad Blair

    By a large majority — 61 percent to 25 percent — Hawaii voters do not want to raise the mandatory retirement age for judges and justices from 70 to 80.

    By an even larger margin — 70 percent to 13 percent — voters also want to have the names of nominees for judges and justices released to the public.

    But voters are torn about whether the state should allow the use of public money for private preschool programs. Forty-five percent oppose the idea, 40 percent support it and 12 percent are unsure.

  • Civil Beat Poll: Democrat Ige Leads Republican Aiona By 4 Percent

    · By Chad Blair

    Democrat David Ige has a 4 percentage point lead over Republican Duke Aiona in the Hawaii governor’s race.

    Ige, a state senator, is up 43 percent to 39 percent over Aiona, the former lieutenant governor.

    Just 8 percent of voters favor Mufi Hannemann, the former Honolulu mayor running as the candidate of the Hawaii Independent Party.

    Libertarian candidate Jeff Davis is at 2 percent. A total of 8 percent of voters surveyed are unsure as to who they’ll vote for in the Nov. 4 general election.

    A relatively unknown candidate, Ige overcame a 10-1 fundraising

  • Civil Beat Poll: Projecting the Winners

    · By Matthew Fitch and Seth Rosenthal

    Prior to the August primary we wrote about how we produce our polls. We discussed some unique challenges to conducting surveys in Hawaii, and we dissected a 2012 poll that was notably off the mark. As part of Civil Beat’s commitment to transparency, it is important to review our most recent polling results now that the concrete election results are known.

    Before we get into this year’s polling, it’s a good time for a reminder about one common misconception about election polls: They are a great tool for predicting the outcomes,

  • The Civil Beat Poll: How We Do It

    · By Matthew Fitch and Seth Rosenthal

    There has recently been increased interest, some of it critical, regarding the methods we use to conduct election polls in Hawaii. Our methods are straightforward and based on industry best practices. Our goal is to accurately capture the opinions and intentions of Hawaii’s voters.

    For every poll we conduct, we follow a standardized, step-by-step procedure. Even though we may sometimes be surprised by what we find, we are always guided by our data. Because of the nature of political polling, we do have to make some judgment calls along the way.

  • Civil Beat Poll: Schatz, Takai Both Frontrunners For Washington, D.C.

    · By Nick Grube

    U.S. Sen. Brian Schatz appears to have stretched out his lead over U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, according to the latest Civil Beat Poll.

    The survey of likely Democratic voters shows Schatz with a 49 percent to 41 percent edge on the congresswoman. That’s a wider lead than in May, the last time Civil Beat polled the race.

    Poll results also show Hawaii Rep. Mark Takai is now the frontrunner in a seven-way free-for-all for the Democratic nomination in the state’s 1st Congressional District.

    Hawaii Senate President Donna Mercado Kim previously held the edge,

  • Civil Beat Poll: Ige Maintains Solid Lead Over Abercrombie

    · By Chad Blair

    With barely a week to go before the primary election, state Sen. David Ige has a double-digit lead over Gov. Neil Abercrombie in the race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, a new Civil beat Poll shows.

    A majority of Hawaii voters surveyed statewide, or 51 percent, who say they will vote in the Democratic primary said they would vote for Ige, compared with 41 percent for Abercrombie. Just 8 percent said they are undecided.

    The new survey suggests that Ige’s surprisingly strong showing in a Civil Beat Poll published June 12 was no fluke.

  • Civil Beat Poll – Full Questionnaire and Results — February 2014

    · By The Civil Beat Staff

    Read all the questions, answers and analysis of the February poll.

  • Civil Beat Poll — Oahu Voters Don’t Like Mufi But Are OK With Caldwell

    · By Chad Blair

    Survey shows divided opinion over whether former Honolulu mayor should run for office again.

  • Civil Beat Poll — Voters Want Higher Minimum Wage, Reject Legal Pot

    · By Chad Blair

    Nearly 60 percent of those surveyed don’t want to legalize weed in Hawaii.

  • Civil Beat Poll — Donna Kim Leads Hawaii Race for 1st Congressional Seat

    · By Chad Blair

    But Mark Takai is not far behind and the seat remains competitive in a large field.

  • Civil Beat Poll — Hawaii’s U.S. Senate Race In ‘Holding Pattern’

    · By Chad Blair

    Schatz and Hanabusa are tied among likely Democratic primary voters with one-fifth still unsure.